In early 2022, to support the development of Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, Transport Canada developed a projection of annual zero-emission vehicle sales and stock based on meeting Canada’s 2026, 2030, and 2035 light-duty zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) sales targets. These year-over-year estimates are notional but aligned to the Emissions Reduction Plan’s commitment to have annually increasing requirements towards achieving 100% light-duty zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035.
These projections take into account historical ZEV sale trends and the average life of new vehicles, estimates of future new light-duty vehicle sales in Canada, federal, provincial and territorial zero-emission vehicle policies and regulations, and other economic variables (e.g. gross domestic product, household formation and incomes from Statistics Canada).
The projections are based on the best available information at the time of development and will be updated on a regular basis to reflect changes in external market factors (such as supply chain disruptions), as well as any new policies and programs introduced by federal, provincial and territorial governments.
Transport Canada’s Projected Annual New Zero-Emission Vehicles Sales (as of early 2022)
Transport Canada’s Projected Annual Zero-Emission Vehicles Stock (as of early 2022)