June 6-7, 2023
Table of Contents
Welcome Message
In an increasingly interconnected world, the aviation industry plays a pivotal role in uniting people across borders and bridging vast distances. As a fundamental service, air travel has become an indispensable means of connection, fostering economic growth, cultural exchange, and human understanding. However, this vital connectivity is not without its vulnerabilities, as the aviation sector is susceptible to a range of safety and security risks, particularly in the face of armed conflicts and geopolitical tensions. The 3rd Safer Skies Forum, a testament to the commitment of international cooperation, convened to address these challenges head-on.
The primary objective of the Safer Skies Initiative is to bolster the safety of air travel on a global scale by identifying and rectifying gaps in the civil aviation sector's approach to conflict zones. With shifting political dynamics heightening potential for incidents, the imperative to be proactive rather than reactive is now more pressing than ever. This gathering exemplified a collective appetite and determination to advance the organization's maturity and collaborative achievements, channeling the goodwill of nations towards a safer and more secure aviation landscape.
The Government of the Netherlands, the Government of Canada and the Safer Skies Consultative Committee would like to thank participants, presenters and facilitators for their active involvement and commitment to advancing the Safer Skies Initiative.
1. General Overview
1.1 Safer Skies Forum
The Safer Skies Forum continues to be the only global event exclusively dedicated to improving the processes required to better manage the shared risks conflict zones pose to global civil aviation operations.
The 3rd Forum was a hybrid event that allowed for both in-person and virtual attendance. The Forum brought together States, international organizations, and the global civil aviation industry to share best practices and challenges in managing conflict zone risk. This year’s theme was Moving Towards Preventative Conflict Zone Risk Management Practices, building on past Forums’ foundational material. Participants engaged in discussions with a broad range of international counterparts to learn more about best practices and challenges with respect to conflict zone risk management practices.
The Forum also presented an opportunity for the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO) to highlight the upcoming release of the 3rd edition of Doc 10084, the Risk Assessment Manual for Civil Aircraft Operations Over or Near Conflict Zones. All ICAO member states wereinvited to review and amend this document to provide up-to-date guidance to the global civil aviation community.
The Safer Skies Consultative Committee (SSCC) co-chairs conveyed the proposed way forward to further grow the Safer Skies Initiative.
1.2 Organizers
The Forum was co-hosted by Transport Canada and the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management. The bi-national organizing committee would like to express its appreciation to international SSCC partners who contributed to the development and delivery of this event.
We would also like to thank the many countries and industry stakeholders who agreed to lend their time and expertise as moderators, facilitators and/or panelists.
1.3 Format
The 3rd Safer Skies Forum was held on June 6-7, 2023. With the Global Pandemic restrictions easing, in-person attendance was offered for the first time in that took place at the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management in The Hague, the Netherlands. A virtual option for participation was also offered for Day 1, encouraging broad global engagement.
The Opening Session on June 6th commenced at 1:00 pm CEST, purposefully scheduled to accommodate virtual participants from various time zones. This session was one hour in length.
The agenda for the subsequent technical sessions on Day 1 incorporated three sessions ranging from 60 – 75 minutes in length, including time for audience questions and discussion; this was facilitated by a moderator and featured expert panelists.
The virtual event platform was designed by Engagez and provided online participants the ability to view the sessions live and contribute real-time questions and comments, which were conveyed through the moderator. To enhance the virtual experience, participants were given access to full speaker biographies and the related session documents located in the Resource section of the event platform.
The agenda for Day 2 was centered around a Tabletop Exercise that took place at the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management in The Hague, the Netherlands. This interactive exercise was available only to in-person participants. Facilitators worked with groups of participants to identify, from their respective positions, the approach they would take to conflict zone management using a fictional scenario and reflecting on the concepts discussed during Day 1.
For those who could not attend the sessions on June 6th, or for participants who wanted to view the presentations and discussions again, all sessions were recorded and are available for viewing under the “Sessions” section of the Engagez platform.
The 3rd Safer Skies Forum Agenda is available in the Appendix section.
1.4 Speakers, moderators and panelists and facilitators
The Opening Session was conducted by the Master of Ceremonies, Richard Ossendorp, Representative of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to ICAO. Ministerial remarks were provided by:
Honorable Mark Harbers, Dutch Minister of Infrastructure and Water Management
Honorable Omar Alghabra, Minister of Transport, Canada
Honorable Onesimus Kipchumba Murkomen, Cabinet Secretary, Ministry of Roads and Transport Kenya
As Hon. Alghabra was unable to attend in person, he presented his remarks via live video feed from Ottawa, Canada. Additional esteemed keynote speakers included:
Dominic Rochon, Associate Deputy Minister, Transport Canada,
Salvatore Sciacchitano, President of the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO),
Sylvain Lefoyer, Deputy Director, Aviation Security and Facilitation, Air Transport Bureau, ICAO,
Piet Ploeg, Chairman of the MH17 Disaster Foundation Board,
Kourosh Doustshenas, Spokesperson & Chair, Government and Stakeholders Relations Committee, Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victims.
Day 1 welcomed a group of distinguished panelists and moderators who contributed their diverse expertise to the panel discussions. Day 2, the tabletop exercise, began with a plenary session followed by breakout groups that were led by two facilitators to guide them through the exercise.
Biographies are available in the Appendix section.
1.5 Participants
One of the objectives of the 3rd Forum was to broaden the regional representation of participants (both panelists and audience). This was achieved as the event brought together more than 260 experts, from 50+ countries including states that are currently experiencing conflict within or near their borders. Participants registered from all parts of the globe representing the breadth and range of experiences and expertise from the global civil aviation community. The 3rd Safer Skies Forum was the first opportunity to provide an in-person component; this was well received as 100+ delegates travelled to The Hague for this event.
2. Summary of content
2.1 Opening Session
The Master of Ceremonies introduced the distinguished delegates who provided opening remarks, welcoming everyone to 3rd Safer Skies Forum. It was noted that progress to date on the Safer Skies Initiative is encouraging, and that continued efforts are needed to close the remaining gaps. The Honorable Mark Harbers and the Honorable Omar Alghabra delivered opening remarks welcoming participants to the 3rd Safer Skies Forum. Subsequently, distinguished guests Dominic Rochon, Associate Deputy Minister, Transport Canada, Salvatore Sciacchitano, President of the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization delivered noteworthy remarks highlighting what has been accomplished thus far while emphasizing the critical reasons why a Forum of this nature continues to be required.
Sylvain Lefoyer, Deputy Director, Aviation Security and Facilitation, Air Transport Bureau, ICAO provided a general overview of the changes coming to the 3rd edition of ICAO Doc 10084 and expressed gratitude for the diverse technical input that was provided by several ICAO regions.
Since this work is international in nature, aircraft operators often need to deal with information from civil aviation authorities that is presented in very different ways. The updated document includes guidance on definitions and systems of classification for characterizing risk levels as well as a template for consistent communication of risk and mitigation levels.
This complex review exercise is expected to yield a published version in Oct 2023.
In their words
The Netherlands is firmly committed to making a meaningful contribution. We owe this to the families and friends who lost their loved ones in the tragic downing of flight MH17 in 2014 and flight PS752 in 2020. Years have passed, and [we] remain as determined as ever to ensure that such a tragedy never happens again.
The Safer Skies Initiative continues to be a priority for the government of Canada. Indeed, the need for urgency for preventative measures, and cooperation on safe air travel has only increased. I call on all parties present today to continue with a collaborative spirit.
Gathered today at this event we have an exceptional and crucially important opportunity to ramp up the political momentum and exchange of technical expertise fostering the global cooperation that will underpin the implementation of the Safer Skies Initiative. The importance to ICAO of addressing the risks that conflict zones pose cannot be overstated and I appreciate this opportunity to engage with you . . . and to reiterate ICAO’s unwavering support of your work.
By bringing together a broad spectrum of stakeholders, this Forum provides a preeminent global platform to share best practices and work together. Now that the Safer Skies Initiative is well established, we can focus on uptake and implementation. By promoting and communicating our work we can increase the global civil aviation community's capacity to incorporate key concepts into daily practices.
ICAO’s work in this regard will not stop with the publication of the new edition of Doc 10084; we have heard the call for capacity building and implementation support activities to operationalize this existing material. I am happy to inform you that outreach activities . . . and an implementation support project are already under consideration.
This problem is neither a problem of the developing world nor of a developed one, it’s a problem for all of us. I am pleased to announce that Kenya will be hosting the 4th Safer Skies Forum in the first quarter of the year 2025 . . . We hope in hosting this conference it will give an opportunity to our neighbors in Africa to help build an even greater coalition.
This session concluded with a poignant reminder of the humanitarian element of the Safer Skies Initiative, and the importance of managing international airspace to prevent, rather than respond to tragedies. In honor of the victims and families impacted by the catastrophic downing of Malaysia Airlines flight 17 (MH17) and Ukraine International Airlines flight 752 (PS752), pre-recorded remarks were kindly provided by Piet Ploeg, Chairman of the MH17 Disaster Foundation Board and Kourosh Doustshenas, Spokesperson & Chair, Government and Stakeholders Relations Committee, Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victims.
2.2 Session 1: Pre-Conflict Phase: Prevention Through Precaution
The first session focused on best practices and challenges in identifying and mitigating the risks associated with a situation of heightened tensions before a conflict fully develops. Expert Panelists shared varied perspectives on the pre-conflict phase and responded to virtual and in-person participant questions and comments about precautionary measures taken when risks are not fully known.
Moderator:
Sylvain Lefoyer, Deputy Director, Aviation Security and Facilitation, Air Transport Bureau, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
Panelists:
Kojiro Osaki, Director, Safety and Security Promotion Department Japan Airlines (JAL)
Joost Rooijackers, National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) Ministry of Justice and Security, The Netherlands
Jane Spicer, Head of Security Threat, Risk and Intelligence, Qantas Airways
Summary of Discussion
Every day flights operate into, out of, over, and around both current and emerging conflict zones. Guidelines and strategies are necessary to ensure the safety and security of aviation operations in a potentially volatile or conflict-prone situation.
Conflict Indicators
Specific pieces of information, data points, events, or trends can provide insight into the potential state of a situation. Panelists first discussed which indicators their organizations monitor when looking for signs of potential conflict development. Some evident examples identified were:
- political tension;
- breakdown of talks;
- heightened rhetoric; and,
- buildup of military arms.
Panelists conveyed that some indicators can be significant in isolation, whereas others are less remarkable on their own but increase in significance with accumulation of other indicators, or in combination with other factors or trends.
It was noted that conflicts often arise due to underlying tensions among different groups or actors within a particular state; tensions may be simmering for some time before a catalyzing event triggers escalation of hostility. Therefore, it is crucial to have a comprehensive understanding of the historical context and previous instances of conflict in that region or state. In this way, analysts can identify patterns, root causes, and warning signs that may indicate the likelihood of tension developing into a full conflict. Even when indicators are clear, the analytical challenge is to determine when the tipping point of a conflict occurs. It was pointed out that nuance is key when interpreting the data; indicators can be analytical, and contextual as well as intuitive within the operating environment.
Best Practices
The diverse background of the panelists demonstrated how varied processes can be depending on location, resources, and experience.
In one example, after the downing of MH17 (July 2014) the Netherlands acted to reorganize their process for managing emerging conflicts. The Dutch government entered into a formal agreement with Dutch air carriers affirming the commitment of all parties to share all available information, including intelligence and non-public data. National (expert) groups were formed, that include representatives from the Dutch Ministry of Justice and Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Home Affairs, and carriers.
Information is also shared at the European Union level as potential conflicts have broader regional implications. To ensure that critical information reaches decision-makers swiftly, an expert group (working level) and steering group (higher level – in addition to the mentioned expert group representatives also has a representative from the Dutch Airline Pilot Association) was established. The expert group can react rapidly, convening to share information and discuss the indications of an emerging conflict; such cooperation is crucial in managing crises effectively, enabling a prompt and effective response. This process is entirely built on a mutual investment in trust.
Evaluating Open-source Information
Experts across the panel use open-source information in their operations, though it was acknowledged that large volumes of publicly available information can be overwhelming to sort through in the absence of a clear strategy.
One successful method shared was for risk advisors to continually track ‘one key issue’ in volatile regions, which makes scouring volumes of open-source information more streamlined, effectively focusing on specifically what impacts them as a carrier.
It suggested that analysts remain sensitive to the following elements when scanning an abundance of open-source material:
- — Capability and intent of surface-to-air missiles in the hands of non-state actors. There is less clarity around intent in this scenario but the potential for misuse is a significant concern.
- — States conducting missile testing or ‘muscle flexing’ activities; this creates a level of unpredictability that makes it harder analytically to maintain a level of comfort for predicting safety and security.
- — Understanding the actor's objectives including:
- target intent which contributes to a better understanding of the risks and implications of missile-related activities in different contexts; and,
- strategic intent which involves considering the cost-benefit calculations from the actors' perspective and analyzing their rhetoric and public statements to deduce their intentions.
Mitigation Measures
It is important that mitigation decisions be made based on the most up-to-date and accurate information available; knowing who the subject-matter experts are and initiating communication is essential. Many of the measures used by the panel were reflective of the SSCC Information Paper Conflict Zone Airspace: Mitigation Strategy Inventory.
While similar risk assessment tools are used across the civil aviation community, the amount of risk stakeholders are willing to take can differ based on a variety of factors, especially access to reliable information. Regardless of risk appetite, panelists agreed that being prepared to respond and then adjust as the environment changes is key; alternate routes and backup plans are necessary.
Challenges
Limited resources are a significant challenge for both states and carriers. When information-sharing is insufficient, and proprietary information providers are unobtainable, stakeholders must rely heavily on open-source information. As previously mentioned, relying on vast amounts of largely unverified information is problematic in managing aircraft operations over or near a potentially volatile or conflict-prone areas.
Even if there are sufficient in-house expert advisors available to analyze and synthesize information, language barriers pose a challenge in some regions as information is often received in English. Perhaps the most significant challenge identified was the lack of a trusted reciprocal flow of information; airlines and governments need shorter communication lines for more efficient collaboration.
Opportunities
While session one highlighted the contrast between the respective panelist’s processes, it also made clear that their requirements are the same: to obtain as much rationale, justification, and context as possible in the pre-conflict phase. To achieve this, panelists and participants were united in identifying a key opportunity - build on the relationships ‘in the room’. The in-person element of the Forum provided the time and space to lay the groundwork for trusted partnerships and improved communication.
2.3 Session 2: Conflict Phase: Monitoring Risk Posture
Moderator:
Nicholas Robinson, Associate Assistant Deputy Minister Transport Canada, Canada
Panelists:
Michael Aomo, Chief Safety Management Systems Coordinator, Kenya Civil Aviation Authority
Ian Fowler, Threats & Intelligence Consultant, Air New Zealand
Oleh Maslyukov, Deputy Aviation Service World Food Program
Maximilian Merz, Head of threat and risk assessment unit, Luftfahrt-Bundesamt, Germany
Summary of Discussion
Conflict zones are not static. Prior decisions need to be updated based on developments in the conflict (e.g., new capabilities, movement of weapons, etc.). Panel experts discussed best practices for ongoing risk assessments associated with heightened tensions during a conflict, and preparation for the subsequent stages.
Humanitarian Flights
The session began with a short dialogue with Oleh Maslyukov from the World Food Program (WFP). He shared how managing humanitarian flights in conflict zones requires a nuanced approach, considering the unique challenges and risks associated with such operations. The WFP is one of the largest humanitarian agencies and provides emergency assistance in locations with active fighting and access challenges. In this way, the WFP’s objective for flying is entirely different from commercial airlines who facilitate travel in exchange for revenue. This necessitates a unique aviation security risk assessment and an active deconfliction strategy. Situational awareness is vital for all parties to achieve well-defined airspace management within a particular area during a particular time.
Maintaining Safe Airspace – Managing Information
In a conflict scenario, advisors and decision makers need to receive relevant, accurate and most importantly timely data. Carriers often use information obtained from multiple sources, including proprietary providers. In a current conflict the information needs to flow quickly so that a solid recommendation can be made based on the carrier and government’s risk appetite. It was noted that service provider’s data is often heavily processed and analyzed, which may impact decision making timelines; it was suggested that when an aircraft is operating near the conflict, operators may prefer to receive a larger amount of ‘uncleaned’ data quickly, rather than a reduced amount of refined information.
Some states classify incoming information as either static, or dynamic (static data is ‘fixed’ and does not change often whereas dynamic data is ‘live’ and continually updated). During a conflict, when information indicates an increase in the threat level, tactical intervention may be implemented (to delay or cancel flights, change altitude, re-route, or return to departure airport). State CAAs may not have the authority to prevent operators from flying but can provide carriers as much information as they can to inform their decision making. If the degree of risk cannot be ascertained due to lack of information, operators are encouraged to implement the precautionary principle.Footnote 1
If the resources are available, a State CAA may conduct intense daily monitoring and advise accordingly. A full risk assessment can take up to two weeks, so when conflicts are evolving, a rapid risk assessment is suggested because it can yield a recommended measure within one hour. The measures are considered short term because they are continually being reassessed.
During an active conflict, rapidly changing information impacts decision making; therefore, being prepared to ‘switch gears’ is essential. Carriers can control where they fly and when, routing and avionics systems; however, they cannot control the conflict. For this reason, panelists emphasized the importance of being comfortable operating the ‘grey area’ between flying and not flying based on the mitigations within their control.
Challenges
Operating in and near conflict zones generates unique challenges; in this session panellists highlighted some of the difficulties they face in their respective roles.
When an unforeseen conflict develops very quickly (i.e., Sudan, May 2023) information does not always come through quickly enough for real-time analysis. In these instances, CAAs could fill ‘gaps’ through intelligence reports provided by other states; this is contingent on established relationships which may be limited for some states.
Another challenge is the lack of infrastructure required to accommodate large aircraft requiring an alternate aerodrome. Aircraft may not be able to land if the runway, taxiway, and parking areas are insufficient for the size or weight of the plane. Ground handling capacity and terminal capacity also need to be considered.
Panelists also pointed out that mitigating a specific risk in a conflict zone can have unintended consequences in other airspace, which presents a serious challenge. For example, if flights are re-routed to avoid a conflict zone, increased pressure (flight volume) is placed on other nearby flight routes and air traffic control services, which can create unsafe airspace in a non-conflict zone. If a country has issued a prohibition for an airspace, foreign carriers operating under a code-share agreement with an airline from that country can face additional routing challenges when complying with the prohibition.
It was indicated that conducting a threat or risk assessment can be most challenging when threat levels are unclear (i.e., in-between threat levels). This makes it more difficult to determine when soft measures vs a prohibition is warranted. It is not always helpful to look at another State or carriers’ actions (i.e., NOTAMS), because there is no assurance of full transparency on all aspects (i.e., sharing mitigation strategies).
For the WFP, a challenge and potential ‘showstopper’ is obtaining insurance, a necessary but complex requirement in initiating a humanitarian mission. Insurance companies approach risk assessment differently than air carriers and they do not share the same methodologies. Finding a common understanding can be further complicated by the presence of other actors and new technology (i.e., drones). In the absence of a consistent approach, more resources are required. For instance, when international troops were being pulled out of Afghanistan, no airline or aircraft owners were willing to put an aircraft on the tarmac in Kabul. This required the WFP to engage directly with the insurance market and the remaining personnel in Kabul to secure terminal services.
Prohibition Exemptions
There are cases when aircraft are exempt from airspace restrictions even when risks are known, such as state aircraft operations or humanitarian operations. In these cases, if the state of registry grants an exemption to its own prohibition, this analysis needs to be based on available mitigation measures that will be put in place. When an unanticipated situation occurs, operators may need to continue through a restricted area when there is no other safe option. Planning for this possibility requires proactive rather than reactive considerations. For example:
- be aware of the countries you are overflying;
- maintain up to date contact info for other operators in the area;
- know the aircraft tail number; and,
- maintain up to date contact info for embassies etc.
Opportunities
This session closed with panelists identifying opportunities to improve collective global action in managing ongoing conflict zones. Possibilities included:
- alignment of best practices when suitable;
- streamlining processes between national systems;
- maximizing information sharing and minimizing duplication of efforts;
- standardization of methodologies, supported through collaboration with ICAO; and
- harmonization of NOTAMs and language at the international level.
It was noted that ongoing momentum generated by the review of ICAO Doc 10084 offers a fitting juncture to drive process evolution.
The SSCC is a key vehicle through which these opportunities can be capitalized.
2.4 Session 3: Post-Conflict Phase: Balancing Decision Making and Uncertainty
Moderator:
Matthew Vaughan, Director Aviation Security International Air Transport Association
Panelists:
Captain Haig Anyoni, Director Corporate Quality, Safety and Environment Kenya Airways
Dominique Grass, Head of the Civil Aviation Risk Analysis Unit, Director AVSEC and FAL France
Volodymyr Hromov, Deputy Head of AVSEC Department - Chief of AVSEC Quality and Control Unit - CAA of Ukraine
Emiliano Lombardi, Senior Military Expert in Conflict Zones, EU Aviation Safety Agency
Summary of Discussion
Session three focused on the steps involved in determining when restricted airspace can be reopened to civil flight operations following the cessation of hostilities in a conflict zone. The panel provided insight on best practices, which stakeholders to collaborate with, and possible steps to take before returning to pre-conflict levels of civil flight operations.
This Session commenced with a presentation on the threats ManPads and stand-off weapons pose to civil aviation in the post-conflict phase. War creates the conditions for the accumulation of weapons, often outside of state control. Historical precedent indicates that a substantial level of weapons proliferation could occur during a conflict. For this reason, it is recommended that proactive measures be taken, which require having the capacity to conduct a suitable risk assessment. The French Risk Analysis Unit (PARAC) has developed training to support technical and adaptive capacity building in this area, which was piloted with the Polish civil aviation authority in July 2023.
Participants and fellow panelists were honored to hear from Volodymyr Hromov, who joined the panel via live video feed from Ukraine. As Russia’s war on Ukraine persists, Ukrainian airspace remains closed. However, national carriers continue operating in other countries, including in high-risk areas. For this reason, the civil aviation authority continues to conduct risk analysis daily.
To transition from the conflict to post-conflict phase, the Ukrainian process will require clear indicators demonstrating that open warfare has ceased. For example:
- publication of official reports and declarations that indicate cessation of military operation;
- abolition of martial law;
- cancellation of airspace restrictions; or,
- reduction of risk level by state bodies and international organizations.
There is also a requirement for two intelligence bodies to affirm the reduction of risk. The process to reopen takes no less than 4-6 months because it is essential to determine whether stability remains day-to-day.
The Kenyan safety team and the European Aviation Safety Agency similarly assess elements of capability and intent on a day-to-day basis; however, it is challenging to determine what the transition to post-conflict looks like. The EASA framework includes analyzing the political situation, social unrest, the religious calendar, threat risk (air defense, air patrol, air strikes, protracted events), and the ability for the country to manage the air space from an operational perspective. The EASA process supports common risk assessments at the EU level under the lead of the Integrated EU Aviation Security Risk Assessment Group. The Group is chaired by the European Commission and allows for the exchange of relevant information (open-source and classified) between EU Member States, the European External Action Service (EEAS) and the EASA.
Panelists reiterated that closing an airspace is usually a relatively quick process, while the decision to reopen airspace is often slow and complicated, particularly when it is a collective decision. For example, EASA has an Information Note for Saudi Arabia that has been in place since Oct 2022. Since then, a ceasefire was put in place in Yemen; subsequently there were no airspace incidents that affected them. Saudi Arabia air traffic management was considered efficient and there has been a resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. For these reasons, a proposal was presented to the EU Risk Assessment Group to reopen the airspace; however, some additional concerns were raised by the members of the Group so the Information Note was kept. It will be revisited on a regular basis.
In an African example (2015) Kenya stopped flights to Burundi due to violent clashes suddenly erupting in Bujumbura (a failed coup). When conducting subsequent risk assessments, it became difficult to determine if the situation was de-escalating because Burundi’s government was administered by military forces. In this case, a good bi-lateral relationship between Kenya and Burundi was essential as the Presidents met face-to-face subsequently assuring Kenya Airway a safe corridor.
2.5 Day One Wrap Up
Discussions reflected a resounding commitment to collective action, and the SSCC emerged as a crucial conduit through which this enthusiasm can be channeled. By fostering international collaboration, states and air carriers can align themselves with best practices, pooling their knowledge and resources to navigate complex security landscapes more effectively. Participants and panelists were consistent in expressing the need for the civil aviation community to promote international standardization of methodologies through engagement with ICAO. Also mentioned was the global harmonization of NOTAMs and common language to achieve increased efficiency and accuracy in assessing risk. Challenges persist, from obstacles in information sharing, underscored by the need for relevant, accurate, and timely information, to the undeniable disparities in access to intelligence.
2.6 Overview of Day 2
On the second day of the 3rd Safer Skies Forum, in-person participants were invited to attend a tabletop exercise that would provide them an opportunity to apply the concepts explored on Day 1 to a fictional scenario in a tangible, dynamic way.
Format
The day started with a short briefing to highlight the key points of the scenario and explain the structure of the day. Participants received the fictional scenario in advance of the event; however, this session allowed them time to ask questions or seek clarifications. Afterwards, participants were divided into five breakout groups comprised of a balanced representation of sectors and regions.
Each group was led by a team of facilitators who provided progressive scenario injects giving participants time to process the information, reflect on what their chosen course of action would be, and ask questions or seek clarity when required. The injects followed real-life phases of a developing conflict, and participants were encouraged to focus on actions and activities relevant to each phase.
Participants actively engaged by sharing their thoughts and ideas based on their current and past experiences, as well as their theoretical knowledge of conflict zone risk management best practices.
Objectives
The Forum tabletop exercise was an opportunity for participants to apply existing conflict zone risk management guidance, such as SSCC concepts explored on Day 1 and ICAO’s Doc 10084, to a realistic fictional scenario.
The objective of the exercise was also to create a knowledge exchange opportunity among diverse participants, gain an appreciation for varied operational environments and allow for the possibility of capacity building opportunities. The in-person portion of the event made this possible by allowing live exchanges of ideas between participants.
The exercise was also intended as a way for the SSCC to identify current practices in conflict zone risk management as well as gaps or challenges that could be addressed by future capacity development opportunities led by the Committee.
Summary of the Scenario
The tabletop exercise examined a conflict in the fictional region of Bluver, host to the nation-states of the Kingdom of Blue and the Republic of Silver. The relationship between the countries is one of uneasy peace with sporadic conflict, with a long-standing disagreement over the land ownership of a region rich in natural resources along their shared border.
A period of conflict occurred in 2022, when diplomatic tension led to cross-border military operations. The conflict was short but inflicted a lot of casualties and caused infrastructure damage to both nations. As a ceasefire came to effect, an uneasy peace settled over the Bluver region, accompanied by a period of rapid de-escalation of military activity. This enabled both nations to reopen their respective airspace and resume cross-border commercial services and air traffic operations.
However, tensions remained over the contested areas and rebel groups unhappy with the terms of the ceasefire emerged on both sides of the border. As the rhetoric became increasingly tense, cross-border incidents led to another period of violence that created uncertainty and enhanced risk in the Bluver region.
Feedback
Participant feedback on the tabletop exercise was overall highly positive. Participants appreciated the small breakout groups, which made it easier to actively engage in conversation. It was also noted that the broad representation of individuals (regionally and from across the civil aviation sector) generated a robust conversation with diverse perspectives. Although the scenario was fictional, it was deemed realistic and reflective of current developments in global conflicts.
Participants noted that the scenario could be shortened, with fewer injects, to maintain focus on the most important aspects of the exercise. The SSCC will closely review participants’ feedback on the scenario, with the intent to reuse the tabletop exercise for future capacity development opportunities.
3. Conclusion
3.1 Message from the SSCC Co-Chairs
In concluding the 3rd Safer Skies Forum, it was announced that future Safer Skies Forums will be held every two years; the 4th Forum will take place in 2025. The upcoming period will allow the SSCC to focus on developing its global ability to manage conflict zone risks more extensively, including by seeking other, more targeted occasions to meet with the community.
In the short-term, the SSCC will focus on the following:
- Developing innovative approaches to conflict zone risk assessments, as was recommended by the Dutch Safety Board’s 2021 report. This work, in addition to the tools already developed by the SSCC, will be the foundation of the goal to support capacity building efforts.
- Working closely with ICAO to make foundational tools widely available so that conflict zone risk management best practices become embedded into all aviation stakeholders’ daily practices.
- Continuing efforts to share information about emerging or evolving conflicts in a timely manner.
- Collaborating with ICAO to establish formal and standardized practices with regards to conflict zone risk management, to ensure the safety and security of civil aviation operations worldwide.
The SSCC is a small Committee but strives to include as many perspectives as possible and to collaborate with all stakeholders within the diverse civil aviation community. This Initiative will continue to work towards bringing the civil aviation community together around the common goal to make our skies safer through innovation, collaboration, and inclusiveness.
3.2 Next Steps
The 3rd Safer Skies Forum, organized in part by the SSCC, presented an excellent opportunity for global civil aviation authorities, industry, and conflict zone risk mitigation subject-matter experts to come together to share their knowledge. In discussing the way forward, panelists were united in the understanding that the very nature of conflict zone risk management precludes a ‘complete’ deliverable; as conflicts arise and evolve, so does the work. The Safer Skies Initiative is driven by the desire for collaborative action; approaching this vital work as a ‘team exercise’ is essential for nations and air carriers to collectively enhance the safety of air travel when operating over or near conflict zones.
4. Appendices
4.1 Agenda
The 3rd Safer Skies Forum
Towards Preventative Conflict Zone Risk Management Practices
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Day 1 — Tuesday, June 6, 2023
11:30 am to 12:45 pm — Welcome Lunch
Opening Session
1:00 pm to 1:50 pm
Masters of Ceremonies:
Richard Ossendorp, Representative of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to ICAO
Opening Remarks
Honorable Mark Harbers, Minister of Infrastructure and Water Management, The Netherlands
Honorable Omar Alghabra, Minister of Transport, Transport Canada, Canada
Dominic Rochon, Associate Deputy Minister, Transport Canada, Canada
Salvatore Sciacchitano, President of the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
Update on Doc 10084 (Risk Assessment Manual for Civil Aircraft Operations Over or Near Conflict Zones)
Sylvain Lefoyer, Deputy Director, Aviation Security and Facilitation, Air Transport Bureau, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
Honoring Victims and Their Families:
- — Kourosh Doustshenas, Spokesperson & Chair, Government and Stakeholders Relations Committee, Association of Families of Flight PS752 Victims
- — Piet Ploeg, Chairman of the MH17 Disaster Foundation Board
Closing
Richard Ossendorp
Session one - Pre-conflict Phase: Prevention Through Precaution
Masters of Ceremonies:
Kas Beumkes, Senior Aviation Policy Advisor, Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, the Netherlands
2:00 pm to 3:00 pm
This session will invite participants to take part in a discussion about best practices to identify and mitigate the risks associated with a situation of heightened tensions before a conflict fully develops. Expert Panelists will impart their varied perspectives on the pre-conflict phase and respond to virtual and in-person participant questions and comments about precautionary measures taken when risks are imperfectly known.
Moderator:
Sylvain Lefoyer, Deputy Director, Aviation Security and Facilitation, Air Transport Bureau, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
Panelists:
Kojiro Osaki, Director, Safety and Security Promotion Department Japan Airlines
Joost Rooijackers, National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) Ministry of Justice and Security, The Netherlands
Jane Spicer, Head of Security Threat, Risk and Intelligence, Qantas
Questions & Answers
3:00 pm to 3:30 pm — Break
Session two - Conflict Phase: Monitoring Risk Posture
3:40 pm to 4:55 pm
Once the initial risks of a new conflict have been mitigated, continual monitoring of the risk environment is required. In this session a panel of experts will discuss best practices for on-going risk assessments associated with heightened tensions during a conflict, and preparation for the subsequent stage(s). Participants are encouraged to interact with the panelists through questions and comments related to predicting, preventing, and responding to emerging or evolving threats during the conflict phase.
Moderator:
Nicholas Robinson, Associate Assistant Deputy Minister Transport Canada, Canada
Dialogue with Oleh Maslyukov, Deputy Aviation Service World Food Program
Panelists:
Michael Aomo, Chief Safety Management Systems Coordinator, Kenya Civil Aviation Authority
Ian Fowler, Threats & Intelligence Consultant, Air New Zealand
Oleh Maslyukov, Deputy Aviation Service World Food Program
Maximilian Merz, Head of threat and risk assessment unit, Luftfahrt-Bundesamt, Germany
Questions & Answers
5:00 pm to 5:15 pm — Break
Session three - Post-conflict Phase: Balancing Decision-making and Uncertainty
5:20 pm to 6:35 pm
In the post-conflict phase, it is necessary to assess airspace and reassess global threats. A panel of experts will share their views on the complexities of decision making in the post-conflict phase when information about potential risks is scarce, and the environment is unstable. Discussion in this session will benefit from participants’ shared experiences in decision-making during the transition period immediately following the end of a conflict.
Moderator: Matthew Vaughan, Director Aviation Security International Air Transport Association (IATA)
Dialogue with Volodymyr Hromov, Deputy Head of AVSEC Department - Chief of AVSEC Quality Control Unit, CAA of Ukraine
Presentation: Dominique Grass, Head of the Civil Aviation Risk Analysis Unit (PARAC) Director AVSEC & FAL, France
Panelists:
Capt. Haig Anyonyi, Director Corporate Quality, Safety & Environment Kenya Airways
Dominique Grass, Head of the Civil Aviation Risk Analysis Unit (PARAC) Director AVSEC & FAL, France
Volodymyr Hromov, Deputy Head of AVSEC Department - Chief of AVSEC Quality Control Unit, CAA of Ukraine
Emiliano Lombardi, Senior Military Expert in Conflict Zones, European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)
Questions & Answers
Day One Wrap Up
6:35 pm to 6:50 pm
The speaker will conclude the discussions from Day 1 by summarizing key points that were identified during the three sessions.
This will also be an opportunity for Q&As to ask any remaining questions that were not addressed during the sessions.
Speakers:
André Baril, Director General, Aviation Security, Transport Canada
John Velho, Director Passenger Protect Program and Target Operations, Transport Canada, Canada
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Day 2 — Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Tabletop Exercise — Considering Varied Perspectives on Conflict Zone Risk Management
10:00 am to 6:00 pm
Day 2 provides an opportunity to apply the concepts explored on Day 1 to a fictional scenario in a tangible, dynamic way. Following a full briefing on the fictional scenario, participants will be divided into breakout groups where they will examine and discuss various aspects of the scenario. This will give participants the opportunity to share best practices or lessons learned based on their current and past experiences.
Lunch as well and snacks and refreshments will be offered throughout the day.
Facilitators:
Russell Reil, Conflict Zone Program Manager, International Affairs, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
William Muldoon, Senior Analyst, Intelligence and Threat Analysis Division, National Security Programs and Incident Response, Security & Hazardous Material Safety, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
Richard Cave, Head of Global Risk & Response, Aviation Security, Department for Transport, United Kingdom & Member of the Safer Skies Consultative Committee
Tom McMorrow, Policy Advisor, Global Risk and Response, Transport Security Directorate, Department for Transport, United Kingdom
Valentine Sarnau, Aviation Security Coordinator, Federal Department of Environment, Transport, Energy and Communication DETEC, Federal Office of Civil Aviation (FOCA)
Thierry Gachot, Chief, Surface to Air, Air to Air and Conflict Zone Threats Division, Civil Aviation Authority, France
Dominique Grass, Head of the Civil Aviation Risk Analysis Unit (PARAC) Director AVSEC & FAL, France
Katie Buckley, Co-Chair, Safer Skies Consultative Committee, Head of Conflict Zone Information Office, Transport Canada
Bianca Colatruglio, Director, Aviation Security and Regulatory Compliance
Katharina Sick, Senior Manager Aviation Security Risk Management, Deutsche Lufthansa AG
10:00 a.m. to 10:45 a.m. — General Scenario Debrief
Moderator: Matthew Vaughan, Director Aviation Security International Air Transport Association (IATA)
10:45 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. — Breakout session #1
12:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. — Lunch
1:30 p.m. to 2:45 p.m. — Breakout session #2
2:45 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. — Health Break
3:00 p.m. to 4:30 p.m. — Breakout session #3
5:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. — Final plenary
Moderator: Nicholas Robinson, Associate Assistant Deputy Minister Transport Canada, Canada
Day 2 Wrap Up
6:00 pm to 6:10 pm
Speakers: Co-Chairs of the Safer Skies Consultative Committee
Kas Beumkes, Senior Aviation Policy Advisor, Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, the Netherlands
Katie Buckley, Head of Conflict Zone Information Office, Transport Canada
6:15 pm — Group Photograph
Following Photo — Reception
Note: this Agenda is subject to change
4.2 Biographies
Speakers & Masters Of Ceremonies
Honourable Mark Harbers, Minister of Infrastructure and Water Management
Minister Mark Harbers has been appointed Minister of Infrastructure and Water Management in the fourth Rutte government on January 10, 2022.
Minister Harbers also served as a spokesperson on climate, energy policy and policy on nitrogen pollution, and Minister of Migration in the third Rutte government before becoming a Member of the Rotterdam municipal executive, with responsibility for economic affairs, the Port of Rotterdam and the environment, and a Member of the House of Representatives and VVD party spokesperson on finance.
Minister Harbers had started studying in Economics at the Erasmus University Rotterdam in 1987.
Honourable Omar Alghabra, Minister of Transport of Canada
Minister Omar Alghabra was first elected as the Member of Parliament for Mississauga Centre in 2015, and also served as the Member of Parliament for Mississauga—Erindale from 2006 to 2008. He has served as Minister of Transport since January 2021.
Minister Alghabra also served as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs (Consular Affairs) and to the Minister of International Trade Diversification, before becoming Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister (Public Service Renewal) and to the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs in 2019.
A longtime community activist, Minister Alghabra is passionate about his involvement with local organizations like Mississauga Summit and Youth Troopers for Global Awareness. He was a member of the community editorial board of the Toronto Star, where he authored columns on a wide range of provincial and federal issues. His work was also published in the Huffington Post. Among his many activities, Minister Alghabra has worked tirelessly to support initiatives that empower new Canadians through social and economic integration.
He has worked in various roles with General Electric Canada, Enbala Power, and the Ontario Energy Board.
A mechanical engineer by trade, Minister Alghabra holds a Master of Business Administration and was a Distinguished Visiting Fellow with the Faculty of Engineering and Architectural Science at Ryerson University.
Dominic Rochon, Associate Deputy Minister, Transport Canada, Canada
Dominic Rochon was appointed Associate Deputy Minister of Transport on October 31, 2022.
Dominic has extensive experience in strategic policy, strategic planning, strategic communications and a range of operational issues in the Government of Canada.
Before joining Transport Canada, he served as Senior Assistant Deputy Minister, National Security and Cyber Security Branch at Public Safety Canada.
Earlier in his public service career, Dominic worked in central agencies, as Acting Director of Operations in the Privy Council Office’s Security and Intelligence Secretariat, and in various positions at the Treasury Board Secretariat, and also held several senior management positions with the Communications Security Establishment Canada.
Dominic received his B.A (Honours) in Political Science, International Politics from the University of Ottawa. He is married with two children.
H.E. Salvatore Sciacchitano, President of the International Civil Aviation Organization Council (ICAO)
Mr. Salvatore Sciacchitano is the sixth President of the ICAO Council. He succeeded Dr. Olumuyiwa Benard Aliu on 1 January 2020.
Mr. Sciacchitano graduated in Telecommunications Engineering from the University of Catania and began his career in aviation in 1980, joining the Italian Airworthiness Authority (RAI) where he held positions of increasing responsibility, serving as the organization’s Regulation Director in 1992, then as Technical Director and, in 1996, as Director General.
With the merger of the aviation branch of the Ministry of Transport and RAI and the subsequent establishment of the Italian Civil Aviation Authority, Mr. Sciacchitano assumed the position of Deputy Director General. In this position, he played an instrumental role in coordinating the core business divisions of the newly founded structure. He was also entrusted with multiple international mandates, chairing the Permanent Commission of EUROCONTROL, representing Italy in the Management Board of European Aviation Safety Agency, holding the Vice-Presidency of the EUROCONTROL Provisional Council and coordinating the Italian delegation during ICAO Assemblies.
As a result of his extensive experience in aviation international affairs, Mr. Sciacchitano was appointed Executive Secretary of the European Civil Aviation Conference in 2010. In February 2019, he joined the Italian Delegation on the Council of ICAO, where he served until assuming his duties as President of the Council.
Richard Ossendorp, Representative of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to ICAO
Richard Ossendorp is the Representative of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to ICAO. Before he became a member of the ICAO Council, Richard headed the negotiating teams for transport, environment and climate action at the Dutch Permanent Representation to the European Union. During this time, he was deeply involved in EU transport policy, including civil aviation. Richard’s home-base is the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management in The Hague, where he fulfilled various management positions before moving to Brussels.
Furthermore, as senior policy advisor at the Directorate-General for Civil Aviation, Richard previously worked on a broad range of international policy questions relating to aviation safety, security, air navigation services and airspace design, passenger rights, market access and environmental regulation.
Sylvain Lefoyer, Deputy Director, Aviation Security and Facilitation, Air Transport Bureau, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
Sylvain Lefoyer is Deputy Director, Aviation Security and Facilitation in the Air Transport Bureau of ICAO since 2017. He leads teams in charge of developing policies, Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs), conducting audits and delivering assistance and capacity building in the areas of Aviation Security, Cyber security, Border Security and Facilitation.
Sylvain is secretary of the Aviation Security Committee, the International Explosives Technical Commission and the Cyber Security Coordination Committee.
Before ICAO, Sylvain’s career spans 25 years in the French ministry of transports, covering transport safety and security in maritime navigation, ground transportation and air navigation. He holds a Master’s degree in electronics from Paris University and a Master’s degree in public management from École des Ponts ParisTech.
Master Of Ceremonies, Moderators & Panelists
Kas Beumkes, Co-Chair, Safer Skies Consultative Committee, Senior Aviation Policy Advisor, Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, The Netherlands
Kas has worked in aircraft accident investigation since 1990 and was the Dutch Safety Board MH17 Crash investigation project manager with more than 25 years’ experience in aircraft accident investigation. Seconded in 2017-2018 to ICAO to assist with the working programme on conflict zones. As of 2019 working for the Netherlands Ministry of Infrastructure and holds the vice-chair of the national expert group sharing conflict zone information with national airlines, the chair of the Expert Group on Risk Information overflying Conflict Zones (EGRICZ), and the co-chair of Safer Skies Consultative Committee (SSCC). Kas obtained a Commercial Pilot’s Licence during his career, has BSc degrees for both Aeronautical and Industrial Engineering, and a Master degree in Management of Safety, Health and Environment.
Kojiro Osaki, Director, Safety and Security Promotion Department Japan Airlines
Kojiro OSAKI is In-charge of corporate security management, analysis of geopolitical risks, SeMS management, unruly passenger handling and aircraft cyber security of Japan Airlines Group.
Kojiro is a member of IATA Geopolitical Risk Task Force (GRTF), IATA Asia Pacific Regional Security Focus Group, AAPA Security Committee, and oneworld Security Group.
Prior to this position, Kojiro was a IOC manager, in-charge of risk management and business continuity plan (successfully set up four back-up IOCs, set up contingency plans for off-line diversions). He was a member of oneworld Operations Control Centre Working group then. He was also a passenger service manager at Heathrow, and vice chairman of Haneda AOC when the new terminal was open.
Joost Rooijackers, National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) Ministry of Justice and Security, The Netherlands
Joost Rooijackers is policy advisor at the Dutch National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (Ministry of Justice and Security).
He is chair of the Dutch expert group on flying over conflict zones and member of SSCC and the international EGRICZ working group. Furthermore, he is responsible for the Dutch air cargo security policy and capacity-building program for aviation security.
Joost is also European aviation security inspector for the EU cargo regime.
Prior to his switch to the policy department, Joost worked as an inspector for aviation security at the Ministry of Justice and Security and managed the training department at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol of a worldwide operating security company.
Jane Spicer, Head of Security Threat, Risk and Intelligence, Qantas
Jane leads the provision of global security threat, risk and intelligence advice to the Qantas Group, bringing over fifteen years of experience in the field. She has responsibility for the Group’s secure overflight program for Qantas Airways, Jetstar Australia, Jetstar Asia and Jetstar Japan.
Jane is a member of the OSAC Aviation Sector Committee (AVSC), and IATA Geopolitical Risk Task Force (GRTF), Asia Pacific and Middle East North Africa Analyst Roundtables, and the Asia Crisis & Security Group.
Prior to joining Qantas, Jane worked in the Australian Government in the field of anti-money laundering and counter terrorism financing, as well as in Defence strategic intelligence roles. Jane has had a diplomatic posting in India and short-term deployment to Afghanistan.
Jane has a Masters of International Relations and a Bachelor of Arts in Communications.
Nicholas Robinson, Associate Assistant Deputy Minister, Safety & Security, Transport Canada
Nicholas Robinson was appointed as the Associate Assistant Deputy Minister (AsADM) of Safety and Security in September 2022. Prior to that he was the Director General of Civil Aviation at Transport Canada. He was responsible for the design and maintenance of a national civil aviation program through policy, guidelines, regulations, standards, education and awareness, in order to achieve Transport Canada’s safety priorities. The program regulates all facets of the aviation industry in Canada, including aeronautical products, personnel licensing, training, operating and flight rules, airports, commercial air services, general aviation and navigation.
Today, the scope of Nicholas’ mandate includes regulating and overseeing regulations to ensure the safety and security of the aviation, marine, rail and road modes along with the transportation of dangerous goods. This includes establishing safety and security policies, regulations, and standards and the development of guidance, tools and instructions to help industry comply with regulations and for inspectors to oversee regulatory compliance. His mandate also includes incident response and the delivery of aircraft services.
Nicholas has a Bachelor of Health Science and a Master of Arts from Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
Oleh Maslyukov, Deputy Aviation Service World Food Program
From commercial aviation sector in Ukraine, regional and country representative positions with the air companies in Balkans and Norther Africa, Oleh joined United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) in 2007. Through the years of service for WFP he occupied positions of Air Operations Officer in Sudan, Head of Air Transport Unit for WFP in Rome focusing on procurement of the air transport services and operational support, Head of Logistics and Supply Chain Management in Ethiopia and Uganda. Presently serving as a Deputy Chief Air Services for WFP HQ in Rome, managing and facilitating work of the remote field operations of the organization with over 100 aircraft at the various parts of the world. Oleh holds a Diploma of Air Transport Management from the National Aviation University of Ukraine, trying to keep his pilot’s licence current and working on a degree in automation of decision making.
Michael Aomo, Chief Safety Management Systems Coordinator, Kenya Civil Aviation Authority
Mr. Aomo is a trained and licensed Air Traffic Controller with over 19 years of experience in the aviation industry. In his current position as the Chief Safety Management System (SMS) Coordinator within the Office of Director Air Navigation Services, Mr. Aomo is responsible for spearheading and coordinating the development, implementation and maintenance of SMS, data-driven Operational Performance Management System, and Institutional Risk Management Framework that conform to both national and international regulatory requirements. He also serves as the Secretary to the Civil/Military Coordination Committee.
Mr. Aomo holds a Doctor of Philosophy Degree in Business Administration – Finance (Thematic Area: Fleet Size and Mix Modelling) from Maseno University, Kenya. He is also an ICAO certified Senior Instructor for the Safety Management for Practitioners (SMxP) Course.
Ian Fowler, Threats & Intelligence Consultant, Air New Zealand
My experience
I draw extensively from military training. For example, the Joint Military Appreciation Process (JMAP) that includes Course of Action development and analysis that is supported by the Joint Intelligence Preparation and monitoring of the Battlespace (JIPB).
Challenges
All threat and risk assessment processes are information hungry – need timely, accurate and relevant information to establish a baseline, detect change, and deliver an actionable output. Therefore, finding ways to rapidly share information between states and airlines is one critical factor.
Acknowledging that one airline’s risk tolerance can be different to another "Other airlines are flying there so we can too!”.
Opportunities
Getting behind collective initiatives such as the IATA Geopolitical Risk Task Force, ICAO Doc 10084, and Safer Skies Initiative to share knowledge and experiences, collectively work through the complexities around information sharing, and help develop threat/risk assessment best practices.
Maximilian Merz, Head of threat and risk assessment unit, Luftfahrt-Bundesamt (LBA), Federal Aviation Office, Germany
Since 2018 Maximilian Merz is responsible for the assessment and management of risks for civil aircraft over or near conflict zones. With his team he constantly monitors threats to civil aviation and looks for innovations & improvements to the risk management process.
Maximilian is a Commercial Pilot with current type rating on Airbus A320 family aircrafts. He has accomplished a Bachelor's degree in Aviation Management and a Master's degree in International Management. Before joining the German CAA, he could gain four years' experience as manager and business analyst at a major German airline.
Matthew Vaughan, Director, Aviation Security & Cyber for International Air Transport Association (IATA)
Matthew is responsible for leading IATA's international efforts in aviation security and cyber, serving as the Secretary for the Security Advisory Council (SAC) and reporting to the IATA Board of Governors. He has over 20 years of security management experience from various sectors, including law enforcement, federal government, and private sector roles. Previously, he worked for Etihad Airways as the Head of Aviation Security and held positions with the New South Wales Police Force, Australian Federal Government, and GHD Pty Ltd. Matthew's work with IATA focuses on promoting compliance to aviation security standards, implementing a risk-based approaches, and ensuring business continuity in the face of evolving threats.
Previously, Matthew worked as a New South Wales Police Force Constable (Sydney, Australia) which culminated into a national security management role with the Australian Government (Canberra, Australia). The balance of his government security career led towards to a national project management role with DHL Express and a consultancy role with GHD Pty Ltd based in both Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Volodymyr Hromov, Deputy Head of AVSEC Department - Chief of AVSEC Quality Control Unit, CAA of Ukraine
Mr. Hromov has been the AVSEC Director Deputy Chief of AVSEC Quality Control Unit, State Aviation Security Inspector of the State Aviation Administration of Ukraine (Civil Aviation Authority) since March 2016. Prior to his actual role, he’s been working in the Aviation security sector for years and attended the National Academy of Security Service of Ukraine, Security Expert, Jurisprudent from 1995 to 2000.
Dominique Grass, Head of the Civil Aviation Risk Analysis Unit (PARAC) Director AVSEC & FAL, France
Dominique is the head of the Risk Assessment Unit of the French Civil Aviation Authority (DGAC). This unit carries out risk assessments on threats against civil aviation, at national and international level. The portfolio encompasses the specific risks arising from overflying conflict zones. Prior to joining this position, Dominique was Aviation & Aeronautics Counsellor at the French Embassy in China, in charge of economic diplomacy for various political and industrial stakeholders, and fostering institutional cooperation between authorities of both countries. Prior to this, Dominique was negotiator at the DGAC of Bilateral Air Services Agreements between France & Third Countries, providing the legal framework and all the relevant provisions, including entitlement of capacity, routes, and traffic rights, for Air Carriers to enable their scheduled flights.
Capt. Haig Anyonyi, Director Corporate Quality, Safety & Environment Kenya Airways
Emiliano Lombardi, Senior Military Expert in Conflict Zones, European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)
André Baril, Director General, Aviation Security, Transport Canada
André Baril has been the Director General of Aviation Security at Transport Canada since February 2022.
Mr. Baril has over 24 years of experience in policy and operations in areas related to: economic and regional development; federal-provincial-territorial relations; Canada-U.S. relations; border management; and security and immigration and refugee issues. Before joining TC, he held various executive positions at Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) over the last 12 years. In his last position as Director General of Immigration Program Guidance, he led IRCC’s response to the downing of Flight PS752, the re-engineering of immigration services in response to COVID, COVID border restrictions and exemptions, and he coordinated IRCC’s efforts in evacuations out of Afghanistan during the air bridge closure.
He has a Master’s Degree in Economics from the University of Toronto and a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from l’Université de Montréal (with a one-year exchange at the University of British Columbia).
John Velho, Director, Passenger Protect Program & Targeting Operations, Safety & Security, Transport Canada, Canada
John Velho was appointed to the position of Director, Passenger Protect Program and Target Operations, Aviation Security in April 2020.
Mr. Velho has 23 years of experience in the Government of Canada, and has occupied positions in different areas of the department such as in Programs, Corporate Finance, Rail, Marine, Technical Training and Aviation. Mr. Velho started his journey as a financial officer, before going on to hold many positions with increasing responsibilities, including Head of International Operations, where he was responsible for oversight activities abroad. He has also worked with international organizations on different technical cooperation files, and represented the Government of Canada in different panels at the International Civil Aviation Organization and the United Nations.
Mr. Velho has recently established a Conflict Zone Information Office (CZIO) as part of the Prime Minister’s Safer Skies commitment following the tragic downing of flight PS752.
Before joining the Government of Canada, Mr. Velho studied business administration and labour relations.
Facilitators – Day 2
Russell Reil, Conflict Zone Program Manager, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
Russell currently serves as the Program Manager for Conflict Zones with the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Office of International Affairs. In this role he serves as the Chair of the Crisis Response Working Group (CRWG) with the responsibility for addressing risks to the safety of civil aircraft in flight from weapons capable of targeting, or otherwise harming, U.S. civil aviation, as well as other hazards associated with conflict, heightened tensions, and extremist or militant activity.
Prior to joining the FAA in 2021, he served within the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) for 12 years with his latest role as an International Compliance Inspector (ICI) within the Compliance Operations Directorate. Before joining the Compliance Operations Directorate, Russell served as the Desk Officer for Europe/Africa & the Middle East Bureau (EAME), with a primary focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. Russell also served as Acting Senior Advisor for the Assistant Administrator of Compliance, and represented TSA Acting as Transportation Security Administration Representative (TSAR) in South Africa and Senegal.
William Muldoon, Senior Analyst, Intelligence and Threat Analysis Division, National Security Programs and Incident Response, Security & Hazardous Material Safety, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
Mr. Muldoon is currently serving as Acting Deputy Director within the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Office of National Security Programs & Incident Response. He is responsible for leading three operational divisions to include Intelligence Threat and Analysis, Washington Operations Center and Emergency Planning and Incident Response Divisions. Previously served as the Senior Analyst responsible for monitoring and reporting on threats to the National Airspace System (NAS) and to international overflight operations. This included guiding intelligence operations for a 24/7 Watch Center, intelligence production and collaboration across the USG and with industry and foreign partners.
Prior to joining the FAA in 2014, Mr. Muldoon served as Senior Analyst for the U.S. Air Force Civil Aviation Analysis Center, where he produced tailored products for community partners. Prior to joining the Civil Aviation Analysis Center in 2011, Mr. Muldoon served in the U.S. Air Force for nearly 25 years at all levels of commands. During this time, he supported numerous deployments including Operations Allied Force, Enduring and Iraqi Freedom.
Mr. Muldoon graduated from the Peru State College in Nebraska, receiving a Bachelor of Technology in Business Management and was awarded a Master of Science in Strategic Intelligence at The National Defense Intelligence College in 2007.
Richard Cave, Head of Global Risk & Response, Aviation Security, Department for Transport, United Kingdom & Member of the Safer Skies Consultative Committee
Richard joined the UK Department for Transport in 2004 and is currently Head of the Global Risk & Response team, with responsibility for DfT’s work on conflict zones and global airspace threats. He oversees DfT’s work on risk assessment and industry engagement in relation to airspace threats, as well as having wider responsibility for other inbound aviation security related policy issues. Richard also represents the UK on both the SSCC and EGRICZ groups. Between 2017 & 2020 Richard was Regional Manager for the Near & Middle East, leading the Departments aviation security engagement and operational work across the region. Prior to this, Richard held contingency planning and incident response roles in DfT’s Transport Security Operations Centre (TSOC) and the Intelligence & Threats Team.
Tom McMorrow, Policy Advisor, Global Risk and Response, Transport Security Directorate, Department for Transport, United Kingdom
Tom joined the UK Department for Transport in September 2022 and is currently a Policy Advisor in the Global Risk and Response Team. In this role, Tom primarily focuses on conflict zones and global airspace threats. Tom’s recent work has included formalising the DfT’s process for conducting overflight risk assessments. Tom’s role sees him frequently collaborate with members of the EGRICZ, and he assisted with the group’s recent review of ICAO Document 10084.
Prior to joining the DfT, Tom spent three years in the Correspondence and Enquiries team at HM Treasury, processing responses to Members of Parliament, stakeholders and members of the public. He studied Political Science at the University of Birmingham.
Valentine Sarnau, Aviation Security Coordinator, Swiss Federal Office of Civil Aviation, Federal Office of Civil Aviation (FOCA)
Valentine Sarnau is Aviation Security Coordinator at the Swiss Federal Office of Civil Aviation. In her role, Valentine is responsible for legal and international affairs in the domain of Aviation Security. At the national level, she is charge of the content and distribution of the national security programme, which regulates the security requirements for the aviation industry in Switzerland. In collaboration with the Federal Office of Police, she maintains regular contact with the airlines to discuss threat and risk, as well as precautionary measures to be taken in certain conflict zones. At the international level, she is member of the ICAO Working Group on Threat and Risk and a Swiss advisor to the ICAO Aviation Security Panel. In the field of detection capabilities, she is a member of the ECAC Technical Task Force and the ECAC EDD Study Group.
Previously, she worked for the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs in the Security Policy Division where she analysed political tensions and conflict situations in the Middle East, Africa and Asia and coordinated governmental security actors. Prior to that, she worked for the Swiss Federal Department of Defence as an international security analyst and carried out a mission as a military intelligence officer in Kosovo, assessing risks for the Swiss contingent in KFOR and proposing risk reduction measures.
Thierry Gachot, Chief, Surface to Air, Air to Air and Conflict Zone Threats Division, Civil Aviation Authority, France
Thierry Gachot served in the French Air Force for 39 years, where he occupied many different positions, all related to the third dimension. He is a specialist of anti-aircraft defense and had the opportunity to to be the commander of several surface-to-air defense units holding anti-aircraft assets of different ranges. Since 2017, Thierry is working in the risk analysis unit for the French Civil Aviation Authority, where he is in charge of analysing the threats related to surface-to-air and stand-off weapons, but also for the threats and risks related to conflict zones.
Katie Buckley, Co-Chair, Safer Skies Consultative Committee, Head of Conflict Zone Information Office, Transport Canada
Katie Buckley is the Head of the Conflict Zone Information Office (CZIO) at Transport Canada, which is responsible for monitoring foreign airspace, identifying and mitigating threats to civil aviation operations over or near conflict zones. The CZIO has matured under Katie’s leadership and now comprises an operational team that analyzes threats to Canadian and civil aviation operations worldwide 24/7.
In addition, Katie is responsible for advancing the Canada-led, global Safer Skies Initiative. In this capacity, she chairs the international Safer Skies Consultive Committee (SSCC), of which she has been a member since its founding in 2020.
Katie joined Transport Canada four years ago as an Aviation Security Risk Advisor responsible for assessing terrorist pathways to attack aviation targets. Katie has been involved with the development and implementation of the new Canadian risk posture on conflict zone risk mitigation since January 2020.
Bianca Colatruglio, Director, Aviation Security and Regulatory Compliance
Bianca Colatruglio is the Director, Aviation Security and Regulatory Compliance at Air Canada. In this role, Bianca is responsible for developing and maintaining a trusted, risk-based and intelligence-led Security Management System. Bianca is based in Montreal, Canada, at Air Canada headquarters. Bianca’s team is responsible for all matters related to aviation security, regulatory compliance, security intelligence, quality assurance and risk management, and for Air Canada’s Global Security Operations Centre.
Prior to joining Air Canada, Bianca spent 12 years in Ottawa working in the federal public service. For seven of those years, Bianca worked at Transport Canada. Bianca’s time with the department started in the Transport Canada Situation Centre, followed by a number of aviation security and intelligence analysis roles in the Aviation Security Operations directorate. Prior to her departure from the government, Bianca was Chief of the Security Intelligence Assessment Branch.
Katharina Hemming, Senior Manager Aviation Security Risk Management, Deutsche Lufthansa AG
Katharina Hemming is a Senior Manager in the Aviation Security Risk Management department at Lufthansa Group, based in Frankfurt, Germany.
Since 2017, she is the regional analyst for the Middle East and North Africa protecting Lufthansa Groups’ employees, passengers, and assets. Further, she is responsible for the overflight risk management, assessing airspace risks and implementing mitigating measures in close coordination with the flight operations.
She holds a Master in Peace- and Conflict Studies and is member of a security working group at the German Federal Academy for Security Policy.
3rd Safer Skies Forum Report
(PDF, 1.37 MB)