Batteries coming to electrify trucks
Engineering advancements in the passenger ZEV sector have transferred to the MHZEV sector and accelerated its development. Battery technologies now satisfy many requirements of heavy-duty trucking over short and medium distances. Furthermore, batteries are entering the long-haul freight market, with multiple OEMs launching vehicles with 500-800 km range (e.g. Mercedes-Benz, Tesla, DAF, Designwerk / Volvo). Regarding shipment distances, statistics show that only a fraction of heavy-duty trucks in North America require operating ranges above 800 km. Moreover, trends indicate a shift from interregional to decentralized distribution models, with the average length of haul decreasing significantly over the past two decades.Payload penalty is currently significant (e.g. >10% for a truck with a 500 km range), but will decrease with innovations addressing the weight and volume of battery packs. These performance targets are shared with the light-duty vehicle sector that drives battery R&D. Nevertheless, in the US and Europe, most heavy-duty freight shipments are volume-constrained (i.e. a truck would reach its volume limit before its weight limit). This implies that the weight of batteries is actually not as critical of a limitation as is often assumed.
Batteries now and in the future
Two established lithium-ion battery chemistries, nickel oxide (NMC, NCA) and iron phosphate (LFP), dominate both the MHZEV and the light-duty vehicle sector. Generally, Ni-based chemistries store more energy and may be suitable for long-haul trucks. The LFP chemistry is usually cheaper, more durable, and safer. Batteries are complicated devices, which require long R&D timelines and high-tech manufacturing. Adoption of next-generation battery technologies will therefore be gradual rather than disruptive. In the short term (~5 years), battery makers will introduce incremental modifications to current chemistries. In the medium term (~10 years), whole cohort of start-ups will validate, optimize, and scale their technologies to compete with the traditional Li-ion chemistries. Silicon anodes, solid-state batteries, and sodium-ion batteries are some of the promising areas. Key challenge for any battery technology is scaling up production. This scale up necessitates high-tech manufacturing capacity (e.g. cell gigafactories) and sufficient mineral supplies. In fact, electric vehicles have the largest mineral demand of any clean technology. As a result, the scale and pace of the automotive transition has put almost all mineral supply chains under strain. The demand is (and will be) overwhelmingly driven by passenger ZEVs, with MHZEVs and grid storage having only a minor contribution. Battery reuse and recycling will be critical for making the technology sustainable. Many new enterprises already partner with OEMs to develop relevant circular technologies. For example, when recycling materials is considered (at rates currently targeted by the EU), electric and ICE vehicles are relatively comparable in their ultimate critical mineral requirements. On the other hand, the amount of ‘lost’ minerals (as well as their emission footprint) is trivial in comparison to the thousands liters of petrol that needs to be extracted to fuel an average ICE car over its lifetime.
Charging infrastructure
Charging infrastructure is as important as batteries for electrifying the commercial vehicle sector. Special chargers, such as the MCS (Megawatt Charging System), are being introduced for heavy-duty trucks with power exceeding 1 MW. These MW-level ratings will be used especially for en-route (≤1 hour) charging, mainly by long-haul trucks. Since fast-charging locations will require several of these chargers (possibly 10+ per location) and thus involve high power demand (possibly tens of MWh per day), upgrades to local electrical infrastructure will be necessary. Nevertheless, analyses done for the US context show that fast en-route charging might be required only for a portion (~50%) of energy demand by long-haul trucks. For more common applications, such as heavy-duty trucks operating out of depot locations and on fixed routes up to ~300 km, the vehicles can be supplied at power levels provided by current light-duty charging equipment and thus without substantial upgrades to the grid (particularly if the charging is managed).
Adoption of battery powertrains
While China has been the leader in electrification of medium- and heavy-duty transportation, the US and Europe are stepping up their efforts. Increasingly stringent emission standards aim to retire diesel and gas trucks, while financial incentives stimulate the adoption of zero-emission powertrains. In the US, long-haul battery trucks may reach cost parity with diesel trucks before 2030 (based on the total cost of ownership), largely due to the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act. The US and Canada also committed to 100% ZEV truck sales by 2040. In many European countries, long-haul battery trucks may reach cost parity within a few years, supported by a mix of favourable policies and incentives. Based on techno-economic estimates for the US and Europe, battery powertrains will outperform diesel in almost 100% of freight applications by 2030-2035 (including extremely long shipment distances). Finally, life cycle assessments of different truck powertrains have shown that, by 2030, battery vehicles will have a lower environmental impact than their diesel or fuel-cell counterparts in most scenarios.